Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 3.814249 4.191327 4.636246 5.214839 5.973046 6.977420 8.506024
2024-12-29 3.401102 3.879644 4.497373 5.403375 6.814863 9.244691 15.207687
2025-01-05 3.030701 3.511892 4.157927 5.161326 6.877489 10.389626 24.552332
2025-01-12 2.764129 3.232271 3.875524 4.910534 6.793647 11.189978 45.220230
2025-01-19 2.592537 3.057342 3.710101 4.797149 6.905060 12.649862 NaN
2025-01-26 2.523777 3.013948 3.725472 4.976522 7.681465 17.935465 NaN
2025-02-02 2.491125 3.015782 3.805760 5.285877 8.977491 37.079808 NaN
2025-02-09 2.410549 2.939033 3.750376 5.325140 9.615249 97.005122 NaN
2025-02-16 2.345139 2.878852 3.713842 5.393026 10.431544 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.239838 2.751170 3.552428 5.168727 10.061301 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.184614 2.696538 3.509824 5.194693 10.716299 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.128508 2.636950 3.453122 5.179076 11.218324 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.050419 2.542318 3.333795 5.015445 10.992402 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.025174 2.528820 3.355713 5.186764 12.731401 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.950092 2.432848 3.223372 4.964372 11.990847 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.878269 2.339620 3.091748 4.733045 11.135691 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.827714 2.278335 3.014532 4.628124 11.024815 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.815905 2.277717 3.045822 4.794010 12.842903 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.817229 2.297896 3.116496 5.078862 16.673959 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.790134 2.270476 3.095849 5.114903 18.520587 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.767285 2.248971 3.084888 5.177158 21.330749 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.718898 2.183673 2.986161 4.971176 19.110795 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.695809 2.159569 2.966111 4.995064 21.242197 NaN NaN